Fuzzy Math on Iraq

by David Isenberg

How bad are things for the U.S. military forces in Iraq? When the No. 2 man in the Pentagon doesnít even come within the distance of a ballpark homer in terms of American troop deaths you know things are bad--very bad.

Consider that back towards the end of April, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz, testifying before a congressional subcommittee, drastically underestimated the number of American soldiers killed in Iraq since the war began.

"It's approximately 500, of which ­I can get the exact numbers. ­Approximately 350 are combat deaths," said Wolfowitz.

At that time, 726 U.S. troops had died in Iraq. Of those, 524 were combat deaths. Thus, he was off on the total number of deaths by 27 percent and the number of combat deaths by 33 percent. Talk about not getting it!

Of course, since then at least another 70 U.S. military personnel have died. As I write this the U.S. military fatality count stands at 806. And, the official wounded count, as of May 8, is 3,786 wounded since May 1, 2003. But there is a lot of controversy about these figures, which do not include many minor wounds, although they do include some soldiers who are wounded and returned to duty. Other estimates of wounded American soldiers range as high as 15,000.

And many of these wounds are serious indeed. Increasingly in Iraq, the wounds involve severe damage to the head and eyes--injuries that leave soldiers brain damaged or blind, or both.

Looked at another way, the United States has suffered 744 fatalities since May 1, 2003, when the Bush administration announced that major combat operations were over. That is 5.35 times as many fatalities as occurred during that phase of the war. Coincidentally, that number is the daily average of coalition soldiers killed in Iraq during the month of April, according to Newsweek.

Speaking of April, there were 87 deaths by hostile fire in the first 15 days of that month. The last time U.S. troops experienced a two-week loss such as this one in Iraq was in October 1971, two years before U.S. ground involvement ended in Vietnam. Truly, April is the cruelest month.

But wait thereís more. The British have suffered 59 military forces killed. The other countries, Italians, Spaniards, Ukrainians, Polish, and others, contributing troops have together suffered another 51 killed. The entire coalition currently has suffered 916 deaths.

Bear in mind, however, no official count exists of contractor, NGO and U.N., and civil servant/government official deaths. Private military companies have easily suffered over 50 dead.

It is also important to note, as Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies pointed out, that these official casualty counts, in terms of the number of fatalities, do not reflect the technical definition of casualty. Websterís and other dictionaries define the term casualty as ìa military person lost through death, wounds, injury, sickness, internment, or capture or through being missing in action.î

For example, the wounded totals do not include several thousand Americans and other coalition personnel that have been evacuated for reasons of physical and mental health. They also do not include at least 24 US military suicides. Physically and mentally ill, and suicides are not technically casualties of war. Accurate data does not seem to be available on non-US military personnel who qualify as wounded. Technically speaking, such personnel should often be defined as ìcasualties.î

Could it get much worse? Actually, yes, much worse. Consider improvised explosive devices. Before the violence in April, which was the deadliest month of the war with 135 U.S. soldiers killed, they were the leading killer of American troops.

As improvised explosive device attacks claim more U.S. and coalition troops, the supply of armor for Humvees--one of the most common forms of military transportation--has become a crucial issue. The Pentagon acknowledges it needs 2,000 more armored Humvees to help protect convoys, but under the current funding plan, it could be two more years before U.S. forces reach that level.

In other words, the lack of proper shielding has caused many needless deaths and wounds. According to a study by a defense consultant, first reported by Newsweek, of a total of 789 coalition deaths as of April 15 (686 of them Americans), 142 were killed by land mines or improvised explosive devices, while 48 others died in rocket-propelled grenade attacks. Almost all of those soldiers were killed while in unprotected vehicles, which means perhaps one in four of those killed in combat in Iraq might be alive if they had had stronger armor around them, the study suggested. Thousands more who were unprotected have suffered grievous wounds, such as the loss of limbs.

With figures likes these, one understands why the Pentagon has fought so hard to prevent images of dead soldiers' homecomings at military bases from becoming public.

David Isenberg is a senior analyst at the British American Security Information Council (BASIC) and a member of the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy.