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Dresden -- Budapest -- Tbilisi -- Baku

October 31, 2005

Jon Basil Utley's travelogue from Germany to Azerbaijan discovers that liberal democracy is moving forward in fits and starts, impeded as always by violence, corruption and war.

The article can be read in its entirety here.

http://www.antiwar.com/utley/?articleid=7767

Posted by coalition at 08:47 AM | Comments (0)

It's Still SNAFU for U.S. Intelligence Community

October 21, 2005

In a report for the British American Security Information Council (BASIC), David Isenberg examines the report by a presidential commission appointed to review intelligence failures relating to weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

The Silberman-Robb Commission, as the panel has come to be known, was tasked with helping the intelligence community to make the necessary changes to deal with critical security challenges, such as the proliferation of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and international terrorism.

Isenberg explains that it is critical that lessons from the WMD intelligence failures over Iraq be reviewed and understood if we are to avoid similar mistakes in the future. But the Commission's recommendations were not particularly impressive. Most involved initiatives that were already in the works before the Commission released its report, and doubts remain about how effective they will be. Had all the proposed reorganizations been in place four years ago, Isenberg explains, there is nothing to suggest that the intelligence agencies or the Bush administration would have reached more accurate conclusions.

The BASIC report finds that the Commission avoided dealing with the 'politics of intelligence': a problem that is likely to continue to fester.

The full report is available at http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Research/05WMD.pdf.


David Isenberg is a senior analyst at BASIC and a member of the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy. His research interests include combating and controlling the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, especially biological weapons, the role of the U.S. intelligence community in contemporary security, and the conventional arms trade.

Posted by coalition at 09:36 AM | Comments (0)

The Six-Party Talks and the Future of the North Korean Nuclear Program 11.2.05

October 19, 2005

The Cato Institute will host a timely forum on the North Korean nuclear program with Joseph DeTrani, U.S. Special Envoy for the Six-Party Talks; and Ted Galen Carpenter, Cato's Vice President for Defense and Foreign Policy Studies.

The future of the North Korean nuclear program remains in doubt. Despite the apparent breakthrough in the Six-Party Talks in Beijing, crucial details remain to be resolved. When the talks reconvene, will negotiators be able to bridge the considerable differences and achieve U.S. goals of a complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement of the North’s nuclear weapons program? What should the United States be willing to pledge to North Korea in exchange for concluding a final agreement? What measures will be put in place to ensure that North Korea abides by its pledges? Will a successful outcome pave the way for a possible similar breakthrough with respect to Iran’s nuclear program?

To learn more about this event, or to register, visit the Cato web site.

http://www.cato.org/event.php?eventid=2474

Posted by coalition at 10:32 AM | Comments (0)

The World Watches as U.S. Attempts Its Restoration

Stephen M. Walt of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government ponders the limits of American power in a timely commentary in The Financial Times.

The article, originally published in the print edtion of the FT on October 19th is available to FT subscribers online in its entirety.

Stephen M. Walt is the academic dean and the Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. A member of the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, Walt is the author of Taming American Power: The Global Response to U.S. Primacy.

Posted by coalition at 10:01 AM | Comments (0)

We Do Not Deserve These People

October 18, 2005

New America Foundation Senior Research Fellow Anatol Lieven renders a must-read review of a must-read book, Andrew Bacevich's The New American Militarism. The article originally appeared in the London Review of Books, and is republished here by permission of the author.

The New American Militarism: How Americans Are Seduced by War by Andrew Bacevich - Oxford, 270 pp.

A key justification of the Bush administration's purported strategy of 'democratising' the Middle East is the argument that democracies are pacific, and that Muslim democracies will therefore eventually settle down peacefully under the benign hegemony of the US. Yet, as Andrew Bacevich points out in one of the most acute analyses of America to have appeared in recent years, the United States itself is in many ways a militaristic country, and becoming more so:

at the end of the Cold War, Americans said yes to military power. The scepticism about arms and armies that informed the original Wilsonian vision, indeed, that pervaded the American experiment from its founding, vanished. Political leaders, liberals and conservatives alike, became enamoured with military might.

The ensuing affair had, and continues to have, a heedless, Gatsby-like aspect, a passion pursued in utter disregard of any consequences that might ensue.

The president's title of 'commander-in-chief' is used by administration propagandists to suggest, in a way reminiscent of German militarists before 1914 attempting to defend their half-witted kaiser, that any criticism of his record in external affairs comes close to a betrayal of the military and the country. Compared to German and other past militarisms, however, the contemporary American variant is extremely complex, and the forces that have generated it have very diverse origins and widely differing motives:

The new American militarism is the handiwork of several disparate groups that shared little in common apart from being intent on undoing the purportedly nefarious effects of the 1960s. Military officers intent on rehabilitating their profession; intellectuals fearing that the loss of confidence at home was paving the way for the triumph of totalitarianism abroad; religious leaders dismayed by the collapse of traditional moral standards; strategists wrestling with the implications of a humiliating defeat that had undermined their credibility; politicians on the make; purveyors of pop culture looking to make a buck: as early as 1980, each saw military power as the apparent answer to any number of problems.

Two other factors have also been critical: the dependence on imported oil is seen as requiring American hegemony over the Middle East; and the Israel lobby has worked assiduously and with extraordinary success to make sure that Israel's enemies are seen by Americans as also being those of the US. And let's not forget the role played by the entrenched interests of the military itself and what Dwight Eisenhower once denounced as the 'military-industrial-academic complex'.

The security elites are obviously interested in the maintenance and expansion of US global military power, if only because their own jobs and profits depend on it. Jobs and patronage also ensure the support of much of the Congress, which often authorises defence spending on weapons systems the Pentagon doesn't want and hasn't asked for, in order to help some group of senators and congressmen in whose home states these systems are manufactured. To achieve wider support in the media and among the public, it is also necessary to keep up the illusion that certain foreign nations constitute a threat to the US, and to maintain a permanent level of international tension.

That's not the same, however, as having an actual desire for war, least of all for a major conflict which might ruin the international economy. US ground forces have bitter memories of Vietnam, and no wish to wage an aggressive war: Rumsfeld and his political appointees had to override the objections of the senior generals, in particular those of the army chief of staff, General Eric Shinseki, before the attack on Iraq. The navy and air force do not have to fight insurgents in hell-holes like Fallujah, and so naturally have a more relaxed attitude.

To understand how the Bush administration was able to manipulate the public into supporting the Iraq war one has to look for deeper explanations. They would include the element of messianism embodied in American civic nationalism, with its quasi-religious belief in the universal and timeless validity of its own democratic system, and in its right and duty to spread that system to the rest of the world. This leads to a genuine belief that American soldiers can do no real wrong because they are spreading 'freedom'. Also of great importance--at least until the Iraqi insurgency rubbed American noses in the horrors of war--has been the development of an aesthetic that sees war as waged by the US as technological, clean and antiseptic; and thanks to its supremacy in weaponry, painlessly victorious. Victory over the Iraqi army in 2003 led to a new flowering of megalomania in militarist quarters. The amazing Max Boot of the Wall Street Journal--an armchair commentator, not a frontline journalist--declared that the US victory had made 'fabled generals such as Erwin Rommel and Heinz Guderian seem positively incompetent by comparison'. Nor was this kind of talk restricted to Republicans. More than two years into the Iraq quagmire, strategic thinkers from the Democratic establishment were still declaring that 'American military power in today’s world is practically unlimited.'

Important sections of contemporary US popular culture are suffused with the language of militarism. Take Bacevich on the popular novelist Tom Clancy:

In any Clancy novel, the international order is a dangerous and threatening place, awash with heavily armed and implacably determined enemies who threaten the United States. That Americans have managed to avoid Armageddon is attributable to a single fact: the men and women of America's uniformed military and its intelligence services have thus far managed to avert those threats. The typical Clancy novel is an unabashed tribute to the skill, honour, extraordinary technological aptitude and sheer decency of the nation’s defenders. To read Red Storm Rising is to enter a world of 'virtuous men and perfect weapons', as one reviewer noted. 'All the Americans are paragons of courage, endurance and devotion to service and country. Their officers are uniformly competent and occasionally inspired. Men of all ranks are faithful husbands and devoted fathers.' Indeed, in the contract that he signed for the filming of Red October, Clancy stipulated that nothing in the film show the navy in a bad light.

Such attitudes go beyond simply glorying in violence, military might and technological prowess. They reflect a belief--genuine or assumed--in what the Germans used to call Soldatentum: the pre-eminent value of the military virtues of courage, discipline and sacrifice, and explicitly or implicitly the superiority of these virtues to those of a hedonistic, contemptible and untrustworthy civilian society and political class. In the words of Thomas Friedman, the ostensibly liberal foreign affairs commentator of the ostensibly liberal New York Times, 'we do not deserve these people. They are so much better than the country . . . they are fighting for.' Such sentiments have a sinister pedigree in modern history.

In the run-up to the last election, even a general as undistinguished as Wesley Clark could see his past generalship alone as qualifying him for the presidency--and gain the support of leading liberal intellectuals. Not that this was new: the first president was a general and throughout the 19th and 20th centuries both generals and more junior officers ran for the presidency on the strength of their military records. And yet, as Bacevich points out, this does not mean that the uniformed military have real power over policy-making, even in matters of war. General Tommy Franks may have regarded Douglas Feith, the undersecretary of defense, as 'the stupidest fucking guy on the planet', but he took Feith's orders, and those of the civilians standing behind him: Wolfowitz, Cheney, Rumsfeld and the president himself. Their combination of militarism and contempt for military advice recalls Clemenceau and Churchill – or Hitler and Stalin.

Indeed, a portrait of US militarism today could be built around a set of such apparently glaring contradictions: the contradiction, for example, between the military coercion of other nations and the belief in the spreading of 'freedom' and 'democracy'. Among most non-Americans, and among many American realists and progressives, the collocation seems inherently ludicrous. But, as Bacevich brings out, it has deep roots in American history. Indeed, the combination is historically coterminous with Western imperialism. Historians of the future will perhaps see preaching 'freedom' at the point of an American rifle as no less morally and intellectually absurd than 'voluntary' conversion to Christianity at the point of a Spanish arquebus.

Its symbols may be often childish and its methods brutish, but American belief in 'freedom' is a real and living force. This cuts two ways. On the one hand, the adherence of many leading intellectuals in the Democratic Party to a belief in muscular democratisation has had a disastrous effect on the party's ability to put up a strong resistance to the policies of the administration. Bush's messianic language of 'freedom'--supported by the specifically Israeli agenda of Natan Sharansky and his allies in the US--has been all too successful in winning over much of the opposition. On the other hand, the fact that a belief in freedom and democracy lies at the heart of civic nationalism places certain limits on American imperialism--weak no doubt, but nonetheless real. It is not possible for the US, unlike previous empires, to pursue a strategy of absolutely unconstrained Machtpolitik. This has been demonstrated recently in the breach between the Bush administration and the Karimov tyranny in Uzbekistan.

The most important contradiction, however, is between the near worship of the military in much of American culture and the equally widespread unwillingness of most Americans--elites and masses alike--to serve in the armed forces. If people like Friedman accompanied their stated admiration for the military with a real desire to abandon their contemptible civilian lives and join the armed services, then American power in the world really might be practically unlimited. But as Bacevich notes,

having thus made plain his personal disdain for crass vulgarity and support for moral rectitude, Friedman in the course of a single paragraph drops the military and moves on to other pursuits. His many readers, meanwhile, having availed themselves of the opportunity to indulge, ever so briefly, in self-loathing, put down their newspapers and themselves move on to other things. Nothing has changed, but columnist and readers alike feel better for the cathartic effect of this oblique, reassuring encounter with an alien world.

Today, having dissolved any connection between claims to citizenship and obligation to serve, Americans entrust their security to a class of military professionals who see themselves in many respects as culturally and politically set apart from the rest of society.

This combination of a theoretical adulation with a profound desire not to serve is not of course new. It characterised most of British society in the 19th century, when, just as with the US today, the overwhelming rejection of conscription--until 1916--meant that, appearances to the contrary, British power was far from unlimited. The British Empire could use its technological superiority, small numbers of professional troops and local auxiliaries to conquer backward and impoverished countries in Asia and Africa, but it would not have dreamed of intervening unilaterally in Europe or North America.

Despite spending more on the military than the rest of the world combined, and despite enjoying overwhelming technological superiority, American military power is actually quite limited. As Iraq--and to a lesser extent Afghanistan--has demonstrated, the US can knock over states, but it cannot suppress the resulting insurgencies, even one based in such a comparatively small population as the Sunni Arabs of Iraq. As for invading and occupying a country the size of Iran, this is coming to seem as unlikely as an invasion of mainland China.

In other words, when it comes to actually applying military power the US is pretty much where it has been for several decades. Another war of occupation like Iraq would necessitate the restoration of conscription: an idea which, with Vietnam in mind, the military detests, and which politicians are well aware would probably make them unelectable. It is just possible that another terrorist attack on the scale of 9/11 might lead to a new draft, but that would bring the end of the US military empire several steps closer. Recognising this, the army is beginning to imitate ancient Rome in offering citizenship to foreign mercenaries in return for military service – something that the amazing Boot approves, on the grounds that while it helped destroy the Roman Empire, it took four hundred years to do so.

Facing these dangers squarely, Bacevich proposes refocusing American strategy away from empire and towards genuine national security. It is a measure of the degree to which imperial thinking now dominates US politics that these moderate and commonsensical proposals would seem nothing short of revolutionary to the average member of the Washington establishment.

They include a renunciation of messianic dreams of improving the world through military force, except where a solid international consensus exists in support of US action; a recovery by Congress of its power over peace and war, as laid down in the constitution but shamefully surrendered in recent years; the adoption of a strategic doctrine explicitly making war a matter of last resort; and a decision that the military should focus on the defence of the nation, not the projection of US power. As a means of keeping military expenditure in some relationship to actual needs, Bacevich suggests pegging it to the combined annual expenditure of the next ten countries, just as in the 19th century the size of the British navy was pegged to that of the next two largest fleets--it is an index of the budgetary elephantiasis of recent years that this would lead to very considerable spending reductions.

This book is important not only for the acuteness of its perceptions, but also for the identity of its author. Colonel Bacevich's views on the military, on US strategy and on world affairs were profoundly shaped by his service in Vietnam. His year there 'fell in the conflict's bleak latter stages . . . long after an odour of failure had begun to envelop the entire enterprise'. The book is dedicated to his brother-in-law, 'a casualty of a misbegotten war'.

Just as Vietnam shaped his view of how the US and the US military should not intervene in the outside world, so the Cold War in Europe helped define his beliefs about the proper role of the military. For Bacevich and his fellow officers in Europe in the 1970s and 1980s, defending the West from possible Soviet aggression, 'not conquest, regime change, preventive war or imperial policing', was 'the American soldier’s true and honourable calling'.

In terms of cultural and political background, this former soldier remains a self-described Catholic conservative, and intensely patriotic. During the 1990s Bacevich wrote for right-wing journals, and still situates himself culturally on the right:

As long as we shared in the common cause of denouncing the foolishness and hypocrisies of the Clinton years, my relationship with modern American conservatism remained a mutually agreeable one . . . But my disenchantment with what passes for mainstream conservatism, embodied in the Bush administration and its groupies, is just about absolute. Fiscal irresponsibility, a buccaneering foreign policy, a disregard for the constitution, the barest lip service as a response to profound moral controversies: these do not qualify as authentically conservative values.
On this score my views have come to coincide with the critique long offered by the radical left: it is the mainstream itself, the professional liberals as well as the professional conservatives, who define the problem . . . The Republican and Democratic Parties may not be identical, but they produce nearly identical results.

Bacevich, in other words, is sceptical of the naive belief that replacing the present administration with a Democrat one would lead to serious changes in the US approach to the world. Formal party allegiances are becoming increasingly irrelevant as far as thinking about foreign and security policy is concerned.

Bacevich also makes plain the private anger of much of the US uniformed military at the way in which it has been sacrificed, and its institutions damaged, by chickenhawk civilian chauvinists who have taken good care never to see action themselves; and the deep private concern of senior officers that they might be ordered into further wars that would wreck the army altogether. Now, as never before, American progressives have the chance to overcome the knee-jerk hostility to the uniformed military that has characterised the left since Vietnam, and to reach out not only to the soldiers in uniform but also to the social, cultural and regional worlds from which they are drawn. For if the American left is once again to become an effective political force, it must return to some of its own military traditions, founded on the distinguished service of men like George McGovern, on the old idea of the citizen soldier, and on a real identification with that soldier's interests and values. With this in mind, Bacevich calls for moves to bind the military more closely into American society, including compulsory education for all officers at a civilian university, not only at the start of their careers but at intervals throughout them.

Or to put it another way, the left must fight imperialism in the name of patriotism. Barring a revolutionary and highly unlikely transformation of American mass culture, any political party that wishes to win majority support will have to demonstrate its commitment to the defence of the country. The Bush administration has used the accusation of weakness in security policy to undermine its opponents, and then used this advantage to pursue reckless strategies that have themselves drastically weakened the US. The left needs to heed Bacevich and draw up a tough, realistic and convincing alternative. It will also have to demonstrate its identification with the respectable aspects of military culture. The Bush administration and the US establishment in general may have grossly mismanaged the threats facing us, but the threats are real, and some at least may well need at some stage to be addressed by military force. And any effective military force also requires the backing of a distinctive military ethic embracing loyalty, discipline and a capacity for both sacrifice and ruthlessness.

In the terrible story of the Bush administration and the Iraq war, one of the most morally disgusting moments took place at a Senate Committee hearing on 29 April 2004, when Paul Wolfowitz--another warmonger who has never served himself--mistook, by a margin of hundreds, how many US soldiers had died in a war for which he was largely responsible. If an official in a Democratic administration had made a public mistake like that, the Republican opposition would have exploited it ruthlessly, unceasingly, to win the next election. The fact that the Democrats completely failed to do this says a great deal about their lack of political will, leadership and capacity to employ a focused strategy.

Because they are the ones who pay the price for reckless warmongering and geopolitical megalomania, soldiers and veterans of the army and marine corps could become valuable allies in the struggle to curb American imperialism, and return America's relationship with its military to the old limited, rational form. For this to happen, however, the soldiers have to believe that campaigns against the Iraq war, and against current US strategy, are anti-militarist, but not anti-military. We have needed the military desperately on occasions in the past; we will definitely need them again.

Anatol Lieven is a senior research fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington DC and the author of America Right or Wrong: An Anatomy of American Nationalism. This article originally appeared in the London Review of Books and is reprinted by permission of the author.

Posted by coalition at 02:02 PM | Comments (0)

A New York State of Mind

October 13, 2005

Charles V. Peña, Senior Fellow with the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, makes some pointed observations about homeland security and of the need for a new approach to U.S. foreign policy.

The article can be read in its entirety at Antiwar.com.

Charles V. Peña, Senior Fellow with the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, an adviser to the Straus Military Reform Project, and an analyst for MSNBC television. He is the author of the upcoming Winning the Un-War: A New Strategy for the War on Terrorism, to be published in 2006 by Potomac Books.


Posted by coalition at 10:21 AM | Comments (0)

Contrary As Usual

October 12, 2005

The following commentary from Ray Close comes to us courtesy of the Committee for the Republic. Close, a former senior CIA officer with many years experience in the Middle East, offers his thoughts on U.S. strategy in Iraq, and of the domestic politics of exit.

Contrary as Usual

Ray Close

With the notable exception of a few politicians with guts and confidence, (most notably Howard Dean), almost every independent analyst of the Iraq situation that I am aware of today slavishly endorses some variation of the Bush strategy of "staying the course". In taking that position, most of these analysts at least have the honesty to apologize for their inability to suggest a workable alternative, and admit that they retain only tenuous and diminishing hope that the "good guys" in Iraq will eventually be able to establish a reasonably stable central administration in Baghdad, reverse the present inexorable slide toward civil war, contain and then defeat the insurgency, gain full federal control over independent regional and ethnic militias, develop a system of governance that will pass as reasonably "democratic", and finally, preserve and protect a unified Iraqi state that is a loyal and compliant ally of the United States --- allowing the U.S. and Britain to limp away from the scene with a modicum of honor and a minimum of humiliation.

I prefer not to associate myself with the Bush "strategy" that he describes in heroic speeches as "staying the course". It is neither honest nor realistic, in my view. Honest realists (to the extent that any still exist in Washington and London) are all fully aware that military "victory" with the number of troops that we have on the ground in Iraq is impossible, that we are rapidly approaching a "tipping point" where the majority of the American and British people will actively resist the growing human and financial costs of the Bush/Blair war strategy; that turning the problem over to the international community is a forgotten dream; that the United States cannot (or will not) administer and finance a major long-term economic redevelopment program that would win the support and gratitude of the Iraqi people; that none of the individual leaders of each of the major political and ethnic factions in Iraq today is willing to make the concessions and compromises necessary to achieve peaceful consensus among the population at large; and that, in conclusion, there is no "honorable" exit strategy available to any coalition led by George W. Bush. If that combination of negatives does not add up to "mission failed", what more accurate term could be chosen?

I see the situation as a classic "Catch-22". Our presence in the country is not advancing Iraqi or American interests, but we remain stubbornly committed to digging the hole deeper with every word uttered by administration spokespersons. Meanwhile, countless perfectly intelligent American and British citizens continue against their own better judgment to subscribe meekly to an empty, demonstrably futile (and still essentially
undefined) "strategy" with the noble-sounding but empty title of "staying the course". Yesterday, when President Bush again committed America and its coalition allies to achieving "total victory" over all forms of terrorism, speaking as if that were a goal he believes can be attained under his personal leadership, he demonstrated again not only his ignorance but his silly vanity ---- and his detachment from reality.

Alternative strategies, admittedly, are exceedingly hard to devise and even more difficult to implement. I have no one-dose "happy pill" to prescribe. But if we are honest and realistic enough to recognize and acknowledge that Bush's present course is doomed to failure, and since he shows no sign whatsoever of truly comprehending the extent of the disaster that he has created, we CANNOT in good conscience continue to sit still while increasing numbers of innocent people die every day and billions of dollars are spent on military operations that achieve nothing constructive.

The most reasonable hope, in my opinion, is that a courageous and forthright leader of the Democratic Party here in the United States will emerge in the very near future who will have the political courage and vision to articulate clearly the extent of the disaster inflicted on the people of the Middle East and on the United States and its partners by the policies of the Bush Administration, and promise that a totally new and different U.S. Middle East policy will be implemented starting the day after the January 2009 presidential inauguration. A new "back to the drawing board" policy would necessarily have to include announcing now a phased withdrawal of US military forces from Iraq to begin immediately after the next inauguration. The whole list of desirable new initiatives that must accompany that announcement is obvious to all of you who know the region well. With specific reference to Iraq, the two most important and urgent actions, I think, should be these : (1) the issuance of an absolutely firm and unequivocal assurance, made as soon as possible, that the United States seeks no long-term strategic military bases in Iraq; and
(2) that the United States will undertake a major long-term economic assistance program to rebuild the Iraqi economy --- free of all political conditions without regard to the composition and political orientation of any Iraqi government that emerges in the years ahead.

These urgent and immediate pronouncements by a credible Democratic candidate for the presidency would, I believe, begin to take much of the wind out of the sails of the anti-American insurgency, and generate widespread support from the American and British people and the world community, including Arabs. Faced with a credible promise that "Brothers, there's a new day a-coming", I think there would be a significant atmospheric change in the whole region, providing renewed incentive to many Iraqis (and other Arabs) to support national unity and to cooperate more effectively with the counter-insurgency. At the present time, the widespread belief that American objectives in Iraq are primarily self-serving, and that those Iraqis who cooperate with the Americans are simply opportunists and stooges, severely undermines positive incentives to support the fledgling central government.

The same applies equally to the attitudes of Iraq's neighbors toward the government in Baghdad. If Iraq is viewed as an American satellite, it will face inevitable hostility and competition within the region, whereas a credible American plan to withdraw would alert those neighbors to the dire consequences to themselves of failing to act urgently to support a stable and independent Iraq --- a goal that most of them now privately favor, but with which they are reluctant to associate themselves openly as long as doing so would be seen as kowtowing to an American president whom they and their people whole-heartedly despise. Let me put this in a different way:

Once there is a clear admission on the part of an American national leader of our country's failure to achieve any of the primary objectives of the Bush strategy in Iraq, and a credible promise is made of radical change in that policy by a new Democratic administration, this will illuminate the road ahead in a way that will encourage Iraqis of all political and religious persuasions immediately to see their present condition from a completely new perspective --- namely, as an opportunity to shape their own future with confidence, and with an awareness of urgent shared responsibility to meet the challenges ahead by themselves.

Today the leadership in Baghdad needs, more than anything else, to be given assurance of their own individual dignity as much as of their national sovereignty. They must be challenged to overcome the frustration and sense of impotence that foreign occupation and tutelage have inevitably imposed on them. Without that dignity, and without that confidence, no one can expect them to pull together and make the common sacrifices that will assure them a secure and stable future as a nation. If they fail to rise to that challenge when given the opportunity, this would only confirm that an outside superpower would be unable to achieve the same objective for them by military force.

My own experience with the people of the Middle East is that a large majority do not hate America "for who we are and what we stand for" so much as they wish desperately that American policy would reflect steadfast commitment to its own ideals of justice and fairness. I reject totally the assertion that genuine friendship and cooperation between us and the peoples and governments of that region is an impossibility. Thousands of American and British people who have lived and worked in the Middle East certainly share the same conviction and reject the negative premises on which the opposite set of expectations is based.

I readily admit that what I am suggesting is an EXTREMELY difficult course, and one that many would say was idealistic but impractical, given well-known American domestic political realities. Many readers of this message may be convinced that hostility toward American policies instituted by Bush is already too deep and too widespread among the Arab peoples to overcome in the foreseeable future merely through a change of regime in Washington. I acknowledge those tremendous obstacles, and respect those doubts. But I challenge skeptics to make their own critical evaluation of the present Bush strategy, and then persuade me that the foreseeable consequences of staying that course are anything less than catastrophic. At least this suggestion offers a glimmer of hope.

Ray Close is a retired CIA analyst with extensive experience in the Middle East. Thanks to Jonathan Clarke and the Committee for the Republic for bringing this commentary to our attention.


Posted by coalition at 09:38 AM | Comments (0)

Cheney's Counterproductive Policies Toward Terrorists

October 11, 2005

Ivan Eland, Director of the Center for Peace and Liberty at the Independent Institute, ponders Vice President Cheney's approach to solving the problem of terrorism.

The article can be read in its entirety at Antiwar.com.

http://antiwar.com/eland/?articleid=7567

Posted by coalition at 04:44 PM | Comments (0)

The Emporer's New Consensus

October 10, 2005

Scott McConnell, Editor of the American Conservative and a member of the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy's Executive Committee, offers his views on the state of foreign policy discourse in Washington.

The article originally appeared in the October 10, 2005 issue of the American Conservative, and can be read in its entirety here.

http://www.amconmag.com/2005/2005_10_10/article1.html

Posted by coalition at 02:21 PM | Comments (0)

Feeding a Failed State's Hungry

October 02, 2005

Doug Bandow, Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and a member of the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, shows how aid to North Korea serves to prop up Kim Jong-Il's Stalinist regime.

The article, which originally appeared in the San Diego Union-Tribune on September 25th, can be read in its entirety here.

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=5105

Posted by coalition at 02:40 PM | Comments (0)

Bush Misreads History

October 01, 2005

A little historical knowledge can be dangerous, particularly when a selective reading of history leads to unwise policy. Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies, and a member of the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, explains why.

The article was originally published in the Orange County Register on September 29, 2005, and can be read in its entirety here.

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=5104

Posted by coalition at 02:29 PM | Comments (0)